The Verdict's 2026 Tony Awards Predictions

It's awards season for the New York theatre community! On Tuesday May 5, the nominees for the Tony Awards, Broadway's biggest night of the year, were announced. Among the nominees, records were broken, shows and artists were celebrated, and other, unfortunately, left out.

Let's break down the categories, including my first thoughts on who might walk out of Radio City on June 7 with an award. I have selected one winner in each category, based not on who I want to win, but who I think will be awarded on Tony Night. I've also marked other shows or artists who I believe could give the winner the highest competition. Some categories have a little explanation as well!

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KEY: Bold - my prediction * - also in high contention

Best New Musical:

The Lost Boys*

Schmigadoon!

Titaníque

Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)*

I think just about everybody predicted this category correctly. I absolutely loved Two Strangers and think it is the most deserving, but I think it could go to one of the larger shows, like Schmigadoon.

Best Revival of a Musical:

Ragtime

Cats: The Jellicle Ball

The Rocky Horror Show

Personally, I see no world in which Ragtime does not win. I was surprised, but not upset to see Chess kept off this list (see my review for why), and Cats just did not improve the material for me in the way many say it has for them.

Best Leading Actor in a Musical:

Nicholas Christopher, Chess

Luke Evans, The Rocky Horror Show

Joshua Henry, Ragtime

Sam Tutty, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)

Brandon Uranowitz, Ragtime*

I would love nothing more than to see Sam Tutty win for his brilliant and hilarious performance, but in a much more realistic world, this award is Joshua Henry's to lose. What he is bringing to the character of Coalhouse Walker Jr. every night is nothing short of sensational, and one of the most moving performances I have ever seen.

Best Leading Actress in a Musical:

Sara Chase, Schmigadoon!

Stephanie Hsu, The Rocky Horror Show

Caissie Levy, Ragtime

Marla Mindelle, Titaníque

Christiani Pitts, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)

Once again, I think this award will go to Ragtime's Caissie Levy. Her performance as Mother is so moving and beautiful, and she also stands out as the only truly dramatic role in a category dominated by other brilliant comedic performances (looking at you, Marla Mindelle!).

Best Featured Actor in a Musical:

Ali Louis Bourzgui, The Lost Boys

André De Shields, Cats: The Jellicle Ball

Bryce Pinkham, Chess

Ben Levi Ross, Ragtime

Layton Williams, Titaníque

This is a very tough category to predict. Personally, I would love it if the award went to Layton Williams, whose performance absolutely stole the show.

Best Featured Actress in a Musical:

Shoshana Bean, The Lost Boys

Hannah Cruz, Chess*

Rachel Dratch, The Rocky Horror Show

Ana Gasteyer, Schmigadoon!

Nichelle Lewis, Ragtime

I believe that this race comes down to Nichelle Lewis and Hannah Cruz. Both women have such weighty roles in their respective shows, and do incredible work.

Best Direction of a Musical:

Michael Arden, The Lost Boys

Lear deBessonet, Ragtime*

Christopher Gattelli, Schmigadoon!

Tim Jackson, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)

Zhailon Levingston & Bill Rauch, Cats: The Jellicle Ball

This is a difficult category to predict, but I would expect to see the Cats team win here for their adaptation and recontextualization of the musical. While I may not have enjoyed it, I still think it was well done and really speaks to many people.

Best Book of a Musical:

The Lost Boys, David Hornsby and Chris Hoch

Schmigadoon!, Cinco Paul

Titaníque; Marla Mindelle, Constantine Rousouli, and Tye Blue*

Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York), Jim Barne and Kit Buchan

The exact same nominees as Best New Musical, an I truly believe that this one will go to Two Strangers. The book is so witty and it kept me giggling the entire show.

Best Choreography:

Christopher Gattelli, Schmigadoon!*

Ellenore Scott, Ragtime

Ani Taj, The Rocky Horror Show

Omari Wiles and Arturo Lyons, Cats: The Jellicle Ball

Lauren Yalango-Grant and Christopher Cree Grant, The Lost Boys

There is only one winner here, and it's Cats. The ballroom choreography is so specific and unique to almost anything seen on Broadway before, and it is very deserving of recognition.

Best Scenic Design of a Musical:

dots, The Rocky Horror Show

Soutra Gilmour, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)*

Rachel Hauck, Cats: The Jellicle Ball

Dane Laffrey, The Lost Boys

Scott Pask, Schmigadoon!

I thought that Soutra Gilmour's design for Two Strangers was the most clever I have seen in a while, but I think that big is going to prevail here.

Best Costume Design of a Musical:

Linda Cho, Ragtime

Linda Cho, Schmigadoon!

Qween Jean, Cats: The Jellicle Ball

Ryan Park, The Lost Boys

David I. Reynoso, The Rocky Horror Show

Best Lighting Design of a Musical:

Kevin Adams, Chess

Jane Cox, The Rocky Horror Show

Donald Holder, Schmigadoon!

Adam Honoré, Cats: The Jellicle Ball

Adam Honoré, Donald Holder & 59 Studio Ragtime

Jen Schriever and Michael Arden, The Lost Boys

Best Sound Design of a Musical:

Kai Harada, Cats: The Jellicle Ball

Kai Harada, Ragtime

Adam Fisher, The Lost Boys

Brian Ronan, The Rocky Horror Show

Walter Trarbach, Schmigadoon!

Best New Play:

The Balusters

Giant*

Liberation

Little Bear Ridge Road

Giant is absolutely brilliant, but I think that the voters are going to go with the American-written Liberation rather than the British import.

Best Revival of a Play:

Death of a Salesman

Becky Shaw

Every Brilliant Thing

Fallen Angels

Oedipus*

I believe that this race is between Death of a Salesman and Oedipus. Both are strong restagings (or reimaginings) of classic works that have garnered strong praise, but once again, the Wing always prefers an American production.

Best Leading Actor in a Play:

Will Harrison, Punch

Nathan Lane, Death of a Salesman*

John Lithgow, Giant

Daniel Radcliffe, Every Brilliant Thing*

Mark Strong, Oedipus

This is tough. Every single actor on this list is giving a career-defining performance, but I have to believe that this will go to Lithgow. His performance as Roald Dahl was one of the most nuanced I have ever seen, and he truly carried the entire play on his overly capable shoulders.

Best Leading Actress in a Play:

Rose Byrne, Fallen Angels

Carrie Coon, Bug

Susannah Flood, Liberation

Lesley Manville, Oedipus

Kelli O'Hara, Fallen Angels

Lesley Manville gave the most nuanced performance of the season. No questions asked. From the second the house lights came back up following Oedipus, I was certain the Tony was hers.

Best Featured Actor in a Play:

Christopher Abbott, Death of a Salesman

Danny Burstein, Marjorie Prime

Brandon J. Dirden, Waiting for Godot

Alden Ehrenreich, Becky Shaw

Ruben Santiago-Hudson, Joe Turner’s Come and Gone

Richard Thomas, The Balusters

Having not seen any of these performances, I cannot speak to this category, but would love to see Danny Burstein win! He is always a force onstage.

Best Featured Actress in a Play:

Betsy Aidem, Liberation

Marylouise Burke, The Balusters

Aya Cash, Giant

Laurie Metcalf, Death of a Salesman

June Squibb, Marjorie Prime*

This is another category I have no insight into, but I have heard high praise for Laurie Metcalf's performance in Death of a Salesman. Also of note, June Squibb made history by becoming the oldest Tony nominee ever at 96!

Best Direction of a Play:

Nicholas Hytner, Giant*

Robert Icke, Oedipus

Kenny Leon, The Balusters

Joe Mantello, Death of a Salesman

Whitney White, Liberation*

If Robert Icke doesn't win Best Revival for Oedipus, I think that this award is his without a doubt. His adaptation of Sophocles' play is nearly flawless and was such a relevant commentary on politics today. I could also see Whitney White winning here after how successful Liberation was and how well it was executed.

Best Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics) Written for the Theatre:

Death of a Salesman, Caroline Shaw

Joe Turner's Come and Gone, Steve Bargonetti

The Lost Boys, The Rescues

Schmigadoon!, Cinco Paul*

Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York), Jim Barne and Kit Buchan

A surprising category that contains both plays and musicals this year, I could see this either going to Schmigadoon or Two Strangers. Both are incredibly clever.

Best Orchestrations:

Doug Besterman and Mike Morris, Schmigadoon!

Ethan Popp, Kyler England, Adrianne "AG" Gonzalez, and Gabriel Mann; The Lost Boys

Lux Pyramid, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)

Brian Usifer, Chess

Andrew Lloyd Webber, David Wilson, Trevor Holder, and Doug Schadt; Cats: The Jellicle Ball

The Cats team barely changed any of the original score, yet re-orchestrated it perfectly to fit the ballroom scene.

Best Scenic Design of a Play:

Hildegard Bechtler, Oedipus

Takeshi Kata, Bug

Chloe Lamford, Death of a Salesman

David Korins, Dog Day Afternoon

David Rockwell, Fallen Angels

Best Costume Design of a Play:

Brenda Abbandandolo, Dog Day Afternoon

Qween Jean, Liberation

Jeff Mahshie, Fallen Angels

Emilio Sosa, The Balusters

Paul Tazewell, Joe Turner's Come and Gone

Best Lighting Design of a Play:

Isabella Byrd, Dog Day Afternoon

Natasha Chivers, Oedipus*

Stacey Derosier, Joe Turner's Come and Gone

Heather Gilbert, Bug

Heather Gilbert, The Fear of 13

Jack Knowles, Death of a Salesman*

Best Sound Design of a Play:

Justin Ellington, Joe Turner's Come and Gone

Tom Gibbons, Oedipus*

Lee Kinney, The Fear of 13

Josh Schmidt, Bug

Mikaal Sulaiman, Death of a Salesman